The 2024 presidential election is approaching and primary elections are getting their start across the country. The results from these primary elections will decide who is running for president of the United States. Donald Trump and Joe Biden are the front-running nominees as of now, but as Trump faces criminal charges and Biden’s ability to lead becomes more of a concern, independent candidates and other underdogs have a chance of taking the lead in a few states. Despite this, the upcoming election will likely be a rematch from 2020.
Already, most candidates have dropped out of the Republican primary. Ron DeSantis, Vivek Ramaswamy, Asa Hutchinson and Chris Christie all dropped out of the race by January 21, leaving only Trump and Nikki Haley to compete for the Republican nomination. However, Trump’s not without his share of challenges. Currently, he has been removed from the ballots in Maine and Colorado, pending a Supreme Court decision on the constitutionality of this decision and its compliance with the 14th Amendment. According to the New York Times, Trump is almost certainly going to return to the ballot by the election date.
A South Carolina (SC) native, Haley is the former governor of SC and former ambassador to the United Nations under Trump. She announced her campaign in February of 2023, running under the Republican banner. She has been critical of Trump in the past, particularly his extremist behavior, including the January 6 insurrection. However, Haley’s policies are similar to Trump’s: advocating for abortion bans, economic changes and more. In February 2021, she stated in a Wall Street Journal op-ed that Trump’s “major policies were outstanding and made America stronger, safer and more prosperous.”
Trump currently leads Haley with 63 delegates to her 17; 1,125 are needed to win the Republican nomination. So far, only five states and the U.S. Virgin Islands have held their primary elections, but March 5, 2024 marks “Super Tuesday,” when 16 states and American Samoa hold their elections. Super Tuesday is the busiest presidential primary election day, and any candidate that makes it through Super Tuesday has a serious chance to win the nomination. According to FiveThirtyEight, a politics prediction and poll aggregation website, Haley is losing to Trump by anywhere between 66 and 21 percentage points, with the closer polls possibly indicating Haley has a chance.
Biden’s only competition in the primaries is Dean Phillips, Minnesota’s 3rd District Congressman since 2019. Phillips has little name recognition compared to Biden and is facing serious funding issues. As of February 26, Philips has earned no delegates and is extremely unlikely to have any competition with Biden for the nomination. Biden currently sits at a 39.3% approval rate (with a disapproval rate of 55.3%) according to poll aggregations from FiveThirtyEight.
Trump and Biden are almost certain to win their respective primaries, but Haley can take the lead for the Republican party, especially if Trump continues to face ballot removals, legal issues and controversy. As South Carolina’s primary election approaches, Haley may earn more delegates than Trump in her home state. Haley will need a rush of public support — despite falling poll approval — to carry her through the upcoming state primaries to Super Tuesday.
